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How to Make Decisions
Decision making is a science as much as it as an art. It requires
not just practice but also experience. Practice hones artistic skills.
Experience implies that there is a repeatable element in decision
making from which we can form principles and techniques can be re-used.
It is this element of the decision making process that we shall
outline in this thread of articles.It turns out that the underlying
structure of all decisions is the same. Consider that the following
are always present:
- There are one or more objectives to be achieved by the decision.
- These give rise to criteria for selection.
- There are multiple options from which we are to select in order
to meet the criteria best.
- There are prevailing conditions forming a decision context which
helps determine our choice of option.
- There are subjective values and preferences inherent among the
decision makers which will influence the way in which they view
options.
- There are payoffs and penalties associated with various options.
Even in the context of a new decision, the ever-presence of these
elements provide comfort and familiarity in the decision. This,
ulimately, is the benefit of experience.In the articles that will
follow under this theme, we shall introduce a process for setting
preferences, for organising criteria and for arriving at defensible
and justifiable decisions in a formal and systematic way.
We shall also show how these decisions are easily documented so
that they can be revisited, explained, defended or re-used in future
situations.We shall show how a database can be set up to capture
the information stored so that a practical and useful knowledge
management system can arise in the wake of a stream of decisions.
We shall also introduce a series of decision making tools. These
will include the famous AHP method, decision tables, decision trees,
dedicated software programs and even the trusty old spreadsheet
which can serve surprisingly well as a decision making aid.
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